Labour won Croydon three times in succession from 1994 to 2002 despite the Conservatives always having more votes. This was because there are a number of very safe Conservative seats in the south of the borough where turnout has been quite high, while Labour wins wards in the centre and north of Croydon with smaller shares of the vote on a lower turnout.
This pattern came to an end in 2006 as the Conservatives won control, although it should be noted that the Conservative share of the vote was fractionally down on 2002. The result was more because Labour’s vote fell sharply and went mainly to the Greens (in some wards to the Liberal Democrats).
The parties gaining votes – Greens, Lib Dems and UKIP – were left unrepresented in the council chamber. The Lib Dems lost the seat they were defending to the Conservatives while picking up votes in wards where they stood little chance of success.
The possibility of future anomalous results in Croydon is still there. It would take a relatively small swing to Labour in order for the party to reach 36 seats and overall control. There are four Conservative seats in split wards, and two wards (six seats) which are vulnerable to a 3 per cent swing back to Labour. It is therefore possible that in a future election Labour could run Croydon with less than 30 per cent of the vote and lagging more than 10 percentage points behind the Conservatives.
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Tags croydon, greenparty
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